منبع
اصلي: يو اس آ تودي 3/8/92
متن
خبر:
گزارش: ايران ممكن است يك ماه با بمب اتمي
فاصله داشته باشد [موضع‌گيري سناتور مارك كرك]
25اكتبر 2013 - سايت روزنامه يو اس تو دي - نويسنده:
اورن دورل - ساعت خبر 0538 بوقت بغداد -
سوتيتر: بر اساس ارزيابي يكي از كارشناسان ارشد
اتمي آمريكا ايران مي‌تواند در كمتر از يك ماه به اندازه كافي اورانيوم غني شده
براي ساخت يك بمب اتمي را توليد نمايد
نكات برجسته مقاله:
- دولت اوباما گفته است كه ايران احتمالاً يك سال با
در اختيار داشتن اورانيوم غني شده براي ساخت بمب اتمي فاصله دارد.
-حسن روحاني رئيس‌جمهور ايران مي‌گويد كشور وي
منافعي در تسليحات اتمي ندارد.
- بازرسان سازمان ملل شواهدي از برنامه تسليحات اتمي
كشف كرده‌اند.
بنا‌به
ارزيابي جديد يكي از كارشناسان ارشد اتمي آمريكا ايران مي‌تواند در كمتر از يك ماه
به اندازه كافي اورانيوم غني شده براي ساخت يك بمب اتمي را توليد نمايد.
اين ارزيابي جديد در زماني مطرح مي‌شود كه كاخ
سفيد از كاركنان سنا [مشاوران و دستياران سناتورها] براي شركت در يك جلسه توجيهي
در مورد ايران دعوت به‌عمل آورده است. همزمان كاخ سفيد در تلاش براي قانع ساختن
كنگره براي عدم اقدام در رابطه با لايحه‌يي مي‌باشد كه خواهان تشديد تحريمات عليه
ايران است.
انستيتوي علوم و امنيت بين‌المللي در اين گزارش
قيد كرده است كه ”كوتاهتر كردن زمان لازمه براي كسب سلاح اتمي داراي تأثيراتي در
مذاكرات اتمي با ايران مي‌باشد ”در گزارش اضافه شده است ”يك دريافت و كشف جديد
حياتي [در رابطه با برنامه اتمي رژيم ايران] اين است كه ايران در حال حاضر نياز به
زمان كمي دارد و در حال كوتاهتر كردن اين زمان [عبور اتمي / كسب سلاح اتمي] مي‌باشد”.
ديويد آلبرايت رئيس انستيتوي علوم و امنيت بين‌المللي
كه يك بازرس سابق در آژانس بين‌المللي انرژي اتمي است گفت مفهوم ارزيابي انجام شده
اين است كه براي اين‌كه زمان لازمه كسب سلاح اتمي [از يك ماه] به ششماه تبديل شود
ايران بايد بيش از نصفي از سانتريفيوژهاي خودش را نابود كند...
درخواست اظهارنظر از جانب شوراي امنيت ملي كاخ
سفيد و وزارت‌خارجه [در مورد اين ارزيابي جديد] جواب داده نشد...
در اين گزارش آلبرايت گفت مذاكرات اتمي با
ايران بايد متمركز زمان ”عبور اتمي (كسب سلاح اتمي) ”يا زمان مورد نياز براي تبديل
اورانيوم غني شده در سطح پائين به اورانيوم غني شده در سطح مورد نياز براي توليد
بمب اتمي باشد.
آلبرايت كه قبلاً در مقابل كنگره آمريكا شهادت
داده است گفت مذاكره‌كنندگان بايد تلاش كنند شيوه‌هايي براي طولاني‌تر كردن زمان
عبور اتمي توسط ايران پيدا كنند و زمان بازرسي توسط بازرسان اتمي را براي كشف عبور
اتمي كوتاهتر نمايند.
ارزيابي
انستيتوي علوم و امنيت بين‌المللي بر اساس آخرين گزارشات ايران و سازمان ملل در
مورد سانتريفيوژهاي ايران كه در حال توليد سوخت اتمي و ذخاير سوخت اتمي است تهيه
شده است...
سناتور جمهوريخواه مارك كرك از ايالت ايلينوي
كه كميته بانكي سنا كه او در آن عضويت دارد در حال بررسي لايحه تشديد تحريمات
ايران است گفت اين گزارش نشان مي‌دهد كه ايران در حال گسترش قابليتهاي اتمي خود با
پوش و عذر و بهانه مذاكرات مي‌باشد.
سناتور مارك كرك گفت ”سنا بايد بلافاصله در
مورد دور جديدي از تحريمات براي ممانعت از دست‌يابي به قابليت غيرقابل كشف عبور
اتمي توسط ايران اقدام نمايد“....
Report: Iran may be
month from a bomb
Oren Dorell, USA TODAY
10:38 p.m. EDT October 24, 2013
Iran could produce
enough weapons-grade uranium to build a nuclear bomb in as little as a month,
according to a new estimate by one of the USA's top nuclear experts.
Story Highlights
The Obama administration has said Iran is probably a year
away from having enough enriched uranium to make a bomb
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has said his country has
no interest in nuclear weapons
U.N. inspectors have found evidence of a weapons program
Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to build a
nuclear bomb in as little as a month, according to a new estimate by one of the
USA's top nuclear experts.
The new assessment comes as the White House invited Senate
staffers to a briefing on negotiations with Iran as it is trying to persuade
Congress not to go ahead with a bill to stiffen sanctions against Iran.
"Shortening breakout times have implications for any
negotiation with Iran," stated the report by the Institute for Science and
International Security. "An essential finding is that they are currently
too short and shortening further."
David Albright, president of the institute and a former
inspector for the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency, said the estimate
means that Iran would have to eliminate more than half of its 19,000
centrifuges to extend the time it would take to build a bomb to six months.
The Obama administration has said Iran is probably a year
away from having enough enriched uranium to make a bomb.
Requests for comment from the National Security Council and
the State Department were not answered.
In the report, Albright said negotiations with Iran should
focus on so-called "breakout" times, or the time required to convert
low-enriched uranium to weapons-grade.
Albright, who has testified before Congress, said the
negotiators should try to find ways to lengthen the breakout times and shorten
the time that inspectors could detect breakout.
ISIS' analysis is based on the latest Iranian and
United Nations reports on Iran's centrifuge equipment for producing nuclear
fuel and its nuclear fuel stockpiles.
Iran's stockpile of highly-enriched uranium has nearly
doubled in a year's time and its number of centrifuges has expanded from 12,000
in 2012 to 19,000 today.
Sen. Mark Kirk, an Illinois Republican whose Senate Banking
Committee is considering legislation to tighten Iran sanctions, said the report
shows that Iran is expanding its nuclear capabilities under the cover of
negotiations.
"The Senate should move forward immediately with a new
round of sanctions to prevent Iran from acquiring an undetectable breakout
capability," he said.
The White House has said new sanctions legislation should
wait while current negotiations — scheduled to resume officially in Geneva next
month — are moving forward.
The White House said Thursday it will continue consulting
with Congress "so that any congressional action is aligned with our
negotiating strategy as we move forward," said Caitlin Hayden, a
spokeswoman for President Obama's National Security Council.
Bernadette Meehan, an NSC spokeswoman, said the
intelligence community maintains "a number of assessments" regarding
potential time frames for Iran to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one
weapon or a testable nuclear device.
"We continue to closely monitor the Iranian nuclear
program and its stockpile of enriched uranium," Meehan said.
World powers are seeking an agreement "that ultimately
resolves all of the international community's concerns about Iran's nuclear
program," she said. "The ultimate goal is a comprehensive agreement
that is credible, transparent, and verifiable."
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has said his country has
no interest in nuclear weapons but that producing nuclear fuel is Iran's right.
His foreign minister, Javad Zarif, has said Iran will not ship its nuclear
stockpile to a third country.
However, Iran has blocked international inspectors from
some suspected nuclear facilities to verify they are being used for peaceful
purposes, access required under international agreements it has signed.
United Nations inspectors have found evidence of a weapons
program in violation of Iran's commitment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty.
The USA and the U.N. Security Council have implemented
crippling economic sanctions on Iran to sway it to take steps to assure the
world it is not developing a bomb.
Israel, which sees an Iranian nuclear bomb as a threat to
its very existence, has said it will take military action to prevent Iran from
getting a bomb.
ISIS estimated in October 2012 that Iran could produce
enough highly-enriched uranium for a bomb within two to four months. The new
estimate is based on an analysis of the latest reports by Iran and the the
IAEA.
ISIS considered various scenarios, including if Iran
decided to build a covert enrichment plant like it has under a mountain in
Fordow, near the city of Qom, that was designed for optimal efficiency and
minimal time to enrich enough uranium for bomb making.
Such a facility built with current Iranian technology could
produce enough material for a bomb in a week, according to the ISIS report.
"If they did that and they were caught it would be a
smoking gun of a nuclear weapons program," Albright said.
If Iran moves ahead with installation of its more
efficient, second generation centrifuges, it would be able to produce enough
nuclear fuel for a bomb with so few of them, between 2,000 and 3,300
centrifuges, that they could fit in a small warehouse, Albright said.
